God is Space Based Laser
By: Gad Nahshon
God is Space Based Laser: S.B.L. In the next century, we will have to pray and cherish this new technologic-science fiction like God. Israeli is "waiting for Godot". "Godot" is the research division of Uncle Sam. Israel's survival links to the accomplishment of this new military device. Israel must follow the pattern of behavior of the U.S.A.'s decision-makers. It must look for the last American "hawks". It is not easy for America to use space for military goals but Israel cannot wait. Its survival depends on the S.B.L. We must explain that Israel's margin of error is very narrow. Remember the Yom Kippur disaster (October 1973). The new super military technology almost dismantled this margin. We must explain also that the concept of deterrence is an American concept, a concept of a superpower with operational depth, territories to which America can retreat but Israel is a small country. Retreat means jumping into the sea, period.
Israel has been challenged in many wars. It has challenged terrorism. It might have to challenge a bio-chemical war.
But the most dangerous threat to its existence are the possibilities of a huge quantity of ballisticmissiles. Even one ballistic missile can cause a catastrophy, especially if it carries bio-chemical bomds.
This terrible picture worried the leaders of the Institute For Advanced Strategies and Political Studies (I.A.S.P.S.). They asked their expert, Angelo M. Codevilla, to learn about this issue. Dr. Codevilla is a known expert on missiles. From 1977 to 1985 he was on the staff of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee. He was also a member of ex-President Reagan's Transition Team. Today, Codevilla teaches at Boston University. He wrote many books on political science and international relations issues (1994 "American Security: Back to the Basic"). Codevilla, the Director of the Division of Research for Strategy of the I.A.S.P.S. organization (offices in Washington, D.C. and in Jerusalem) produced an excellent analytical survey of the situation called: "Missiles, Defense and Israel."
Codevilla, certainly a "hawk", argued:
Our enemies are developing their mass destruction potential by building an arsenal of new ballistic missiles.
The Scuds attack on Israel in 1991 is nothing compared to the new type of ballistic missiles. He quoted the ex-C.I.A. head, James Wolsey, who in December 1996 testified in the Senate: "...Within a few years Saddam or the Chinese rulers will be able to threaten something far more troubling than firings of relatively inaccurate ballistic missiles. They may quite plausibly be able to threaten to destroy, say, the Knesset or threaten to create... an international Chernobyl incident at a Taiwanese nuclear power plant."
It is an issue of blackmail. In 1991 the fear from Scuds carrying chemical weapons paralyzed Tel Aviv.
Ballistic missiles are cheap to buy. A Scud costs $500,000. Ballistic missiles are easy to use. You do not have to mobilize your army. And we learned from 1991 "Desert Storm" that they are easy to hide (in deep caves).
One must understand, argued the expert Codevilla, that the ballistic missiles are popular because the enemy knows that we cannot stop their attack. Codevilla quoted an Iraqi expert who wrote that no interceptor system today can "...cope with great numbers of incoming missiles launched at different ranges. The Iraqis claimed that the ability to intercept is no more than 10-15% of the missiles which would attack you."
Generally speaking, Codevilla presented the following picture: Iran posseses 200 Scud Bs, 100 Scud Cs, Nodong and Tondar G-8. Israel recently put pressure on Russia to dismantle its support of the Iranian development of missiles. Iran wants to buy from Russia SS-25 ICBM's and it develops its Shihub-3 (3000 Km-range!). Iran has a stock of chemical and biological weapons. Iraq still has Scuds. It is still active in buying accelerometers and gyroscopes (December 1995). It is a certainty that Iraq has become a master of hide and deceive. It also owns a stock of bio-chemical weapons.
Israel, as we know, is extremely worried abotu the Syrian stock: 600 Scud Bs and Cs, M-9, 36 SS-21s. Syria is manufacturing both Sarin and VX. Syria owns stock of pulmonary Anthrax.
Again, the reader must realize that the fact of an attack on Israel will be a quantitative attack with many ballistic missiles. How can one challenge this threat?
Codevilla presented in his illuminating research the existing means of defense. The patriots have failed. They cannot solve the issue of defending the civilian population. Furthermore, in case of bio-chemical war, the ballistic can be exploded in the air but the bio-chemical fallout will cause a catastrophy. That's the reason why Jordan, for example, expressed its objection to an Israeli defense system which will meet the enemy's attack above Jordanian territory. Well, how can Israel, a small country, stop the attack before it reaches its territories?
Codevilla also discussed the Arrow-2 project. It is a good one but it is not, again, a good defense system for Israel.
The conclusion of Codevilla is: "The most effective, most highly leveraged form of missile defense consists of devices that attack ballistic missiles -- not their warheads -- during the first one to five minutes of their flight, while their engines are still burning and boosting them. During this stage of flight, the missiles are slowest and most vulnerable to any kind of hit." This is the illuminating formula of Dr. Codevilla. You miss that momentum and you are going to be in big trouble. It is clear that even the Arrow-2 (which would be operational in the year 2000) cannot be the definitive answer to Israel security. "The next missile attack on israel will be different" wrote Codevilla. Why? Because the enemy studies all the time the American response to its ballistic missiles.
The answer is to be close into the enemy "boost phase". You have to be on enemy territory and at the right time. The only way is to use the space together with the U.S.A. The answer is the laser. America soon will have a new treasure: THEL or Tactical High Energy Laser. This is going to mark the end of the Katgusha attacks on the Gallilee (Quiriat Shemona). We hope that the U.S.A. in the year 1999 will provide Israel with THEL which may help end Israel's war in North Lebanon, as well.
Conclusion: Israel's future missile defense "...depends on what the U.S. will and will not do..." Israel, therefore, must press the U.S.A., also, to go on with the laser research, as well. Of course, it is a great burden for a small country and its friends in America. So we need the most effective pro-Israeli lobby. We have a direct interest in the course of America's military technology research and in its budgets.
The only solution to Israel's security is, of course, the SBL or "a 3 meter long cylinder on the edges of which hydrogen and fluorine gas react as they rush out into the vacuum of space. The reaction produces a beam. . . All kinds of ballistic missiles whether their ranges are 75 Km or 12,000 Km are vulnerable to SBLs. Since the SBL looks down from on high, it can see missiles as soon as they rise above the clouds. It is the only means of hitting missiles early enough in boost phase. . ." Wrote Codevilla, and he stressed: "For Israel, American SBL's would be a unique blessing." He suggested a defense system for Israel which will be based on Arrow-2 and SBLs. This system would, also, generate a new kind of deterrence. The enemies of Israel would understand that their missiles would fall back on their own territories and on their own civil population. Well it might turn out to be a sort of indirect incentive for the future peace.
Codevilla's hidden message is, of course, the linkage between Israel and the U.S.A. Israel cannot be just a bystander. It should support the needs of the American military defense establishment as much as it can as a foreign country.
The reader also should figure out that Dr. Codevilla in his research only discussed the issue of ballistic missiles.
The macro field of Israel's defense is much wider. There is another factor to be aware of: an attack by ballistic missiles with or without bio-chemical weapons means, also, an attack on an Arab-Muslim civilian population consisting of Israeli Arabs, Palestinian West Bank Arabs and even Jordanian Arabs. Well Israel, of course, can be attacked or threatened by bio-chemical kinds of terrorism. The enemies can try to penetrate Israel by all kinds of other missiles or by low flying pilotless vehicles which will carry bio-chemical weapons. Of course, Israel can always retaliate but it will not compensate for a catastrophy such as the killing of 10,000 Israelis in Haifa or Tel Aviv.
Perhaps the pressure of international public opinion might deter the future use of nuclear or bio-chemical weapons in the Middle East. Perhaps the enemies of Israel do not like to suffer from international retaliation. Today, "... The most productive course for Israel would be to become part of an anti-missile network run by the United States..." Israel would be the immediate and massive beneficiary of an American network of space based lasers," concluded Dr. Codevilla.
Return to News ArchivesBack to Top